Why won't the US or China (or even Russia) admit we're engaged in cyberwar? I have a theory based on historical precedent, involving all three countries: the Korean War. Since my time in the Air Force I knew that US pilots had directly engaged Russian pilots in the skies over Korea in the 1950s. This was an "open secret." Recently I watched the NOVA episode Missing in MiG Alley, which confirmed this fact:NARRATOR: For 40 years, Russia's role in Korea remained a secret. Now, one of the Soviets' top aces, Sergei Kramarenko, can finally talk about his exploits in MiG Alley.
SERGEI KRAMARENKO: (Russian dialogue)
INTERPRETER: It was a secret mission, neither before nor after the war were we allowed to reveal that we were going to fly for the North Koreans...against the Americans. It was top secret.
SERGEI KRAMARENKO: (Russian dialogue)
INTERPRETER: We were told that in case we were shot down beyond the front line we had to kill ourselves. Not to surrender was in the interests of the State.
SERGEI KRAMARENKO: (Russian dialogue)
INTERPRETER: Of keeping the military secret.
NARRATOR: If word got out of their involvement, the Russians feared the Korean conflict might trigger World War Three. But then, this was not a secret easily kept...
NARRATOR: And yet, while the pilots knew who they were up against, the American public did not. Both sides, Western and Communist, kept the secret.
Colonel Orlov was a Soviet intelligence officer in North Korea.
COLONEL ORLOV: (Russian dialogue)
INTERPRETER: It was kept from the American public in case they demanded action against the Soviet Union. By this time Russia had atomic bomb and neither Washington nor Moscow wanted to risk full-scale nuclear war.
The comparison with our current situation is clear: neither side has an incentive to talk about cyberwar, because it could incite both sides to clamor for escalation.
In a related issue, both sides have no incentive to admit that while their offense is very effective, their defense is horrible.
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